Once May rolls around, low rates start to beckon at resorts in the Caribbean islands and on Mexico's Caribbean coast (Cancun and the Riviera Maya) ; yet every few years, one of these popular destinations is hit by a destructive tropical storm. Florida too is vulnerable: on the Gulf Coast, on the eastern Atlantic coast, in the Keys in the south; even tourist powerhouse Orlando -- in the middle of the state-- gets an occasional blast.
Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season is from 1 June to 30 November, but as the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes:
- "There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity."
When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October", with:
- 78% of the tropical storm days
- 87% of the "minor" hurricane days
- 96% of the "major" hurricane days
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.
If you've heard this old mariner's poem about Caribbean hurricanes:
June- too soon.
July-- stand by!
August-- look out you must.
September-- remember.
October, all over.
-- Wilma was a reminder that October can be risky. (See a graphic of October Caribbean hurricanes over many decades.)
Hurricane Season in the Caribbean: Different Areas
Some islands are less prone to violent storms than others, and holiday-ers can try to pick spots strategically.
The Dutch Caribbean "ABC" islands -- Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, are considered to be out of the main hurricane zone, clustered close to Venezuela; Trinidad and Tobago, too, are south of the hurricane belt and rarely get hit.
Also, some say that the eastern Caribbean and US East Coast are most at risk mid-August to mid-September, whereas in the western Caribbean (which includes Mexico and Belize), the season intensifies from mid-September into early November. But Jamaica, in the western Caribbean, has mainly been hit late August-early September...
Unfortunately, Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars or maps.
Forecasts for 2009 Hurricane Season
Still, every year hurricane specialists give their best shot at forecasts for the hurricane season. For example, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has ongoing Tropical Storm Forecasts. Pleasant thought for 2009:
Check the site for updates, though!
How To Protect Your Vacation in Hurricane Season
Even if your holiday isn't actually in the path of a major storm, weather patterns are disrupted in a wide radius, and some days may be spoiled by rain and wind if you're in an affected area.
Still, hurricane season is a tempting time to travel: it spans the top two months when kids are out of school; also -- and not surprisingly!-- very tempting discounts are offered at Caribbean resorts during the hurricane season months.
- Check out strategies for hurricane season holidays: such as choosing safer islands, or choosing resorts and vacation packagers that offer weather guarantees
